Tuesday, July 29, 2008

Hong Kong too proud to face its fall

I love Hong Kong but I also feel that the ruling elites are too proud to face reality and do something to help Hong Kong, I mean the general public of Hong Kong. And by "ruling elite", I emphasize that this includes the Democrats or Pan-Democrats too. But please do not misunderstand me; I am not interested in the tea-cup politics of Hong Kong. Here are some real and personal experience:

1. Inflation in Hong Kong is actually out of control or uncontrollable. We are getting poorer everyday and our "real wealth" is actually worse than that during the days of the Asian financial crisis or the SARS attack.

2. Many SMEs (small and middle-sized enterprises) in Hong Kong are facing insurmountable difficulties in running their businesses. Why? Costs and expenses are too high; profit margin (if any) is too low. Competition from and monopoly by large corporations (local and foreign) are taking away their chance of survival.

3. One actual example. A number of Hong Kong style tea restaurants that are part of our SMEs are downsizing or closing businesses. The one that I like to go for a meal after my exercise is closing today!

4. Another real example. Some friends who did very well in the past have suddenly turned into financial difficulties and need help. I have got several calls asking for job referrals or money. Well, anyone telling me that Hong Kong is prosperous and very successful may get a slap on the face from me.
5. I have heard that even tickets for the horse racing events in the Hong Kong Olympics are not selling too well. May be the situation will improve when you hand out free tickets or offer higher discounts.

6. Employment in Hong Kong is getting worse or at least has not improved for a couple of months while wages are declining or diminishing whether owing to inflation or economic slowdown.

7. Most disturbing is the news that the property market in Hong Kong is having a fast downturn. Our property market has never been stable and after the Asian financial crisis, it just collapsed. It almost died completely after the SARS attack in 2003. Our Central Government in Beijing started to save Hong Kong and property price started to jump from 2004. The rapid rise in prices created another deadly bubble in the last few years and it is now beginning to burst! Some owners are selling their flats after discounting the price by 10% or more and some agree to sell at a loss. Even without making a loss, the net proceeds after deducting mortgage payments and other related costs won't generate sufficient return to cover say interest and/or inflation! See those who bought properties in 2006 and 2007 are suffering and so our retail market is facing a cold cold winter.

8. Another real example. I have found a number of beggars on the streets, in Central, Wanchai and Causeway Bay. Are their number getting bigger and bigger? I have also seen more and more street squatters or street sleepers. Who dares to tell me Hong Kong is very rich and I will give him or her a slap on the face.

9. Needless to say, our Hong Kong Stock Casino has generated a large number of victims who are now waiting for death. They lost a lot of money in gambling and the Hong Kong Stock Casino is also losing business. You know the local government in Hong Kong has also used public funds in its reserves to gamble in the stocks of the Hong Kong Stock Casino. The price they paid as announced was over HKD155 a share but now the price of the Hong Kong Stock Casino has fallen to around HKD110. Still not bad or too bad to the local government, I think.

I wonder what the situation may look like when the US slowdown gets worse. Let's face the greatest economic crisis in our 21st century with calmness and courage. My God, Hong Kong is falling again after the handover in 1997!

No comments: