Who may suffer most in a recession?

I am thinking about the case in Hong Kong. Again, I may use the financial crisis in 1997-98 as a reference. But clearly the situation facing Hong Kong is very different from that in 1997-98.

Let's draft out some rough ideas:

• People who bought a lot of shares in 2007 when the Hong Kong Stock Casino peaked at above 30,000 pts. should now be very badly hit. But of course this group must exclude the lucky ones who managed to sell their shares before the market started to collapse at the end of 2007.

• Those who bought real estate or flats in the last few years when property prices started to jump after our Central Government in Beijing came to rescue Hong Kong's economy. Property prices are now tumbling and will continue at a very rapid pace. But if you sold your flat in 2007, you should be very lucky. That assume that you did not buy another flat this year or earlier after selling one in 2007.

• Those who need loans to finance their businesses but have difficulties to repay their debts or might probably have such difficulties owing to the credit crunch and economic downturn.

• People working or doing business in the banking, financial, securities, real estate and retail sectors. Those that enjoy higher income will have a much difficult future than those paid on the lower end.

• Professionals like lawyers and accountants. Well, this group should exclude those working in the insolvency field or related areas like insolvent restructuring, etc. But don't expect these exceptions can get very good return under the poor conditions of recession.

• Those whose fortune depends on the prosperity of emerging markets including Mainland China. Clearly you can hardly sleep if you rely on the stock and real estate markets in Mainland China to make a living!

It appears to me that the recession will hit those who belong to the "casino culture" of Hong Kong! This is something that should be similar to what happened as a result of the financial crisis in 1997-98. But this time, the number of the casualties should be much much larger. Why? Hong Kong has generated another huge group of worshippers of "casino culture" after the rescue by our Central Government in Beijing in 2003 and in addition to the pre-existing group of casino culture worshippers, you may at least double the number. If one out of ten persons was such worshipper in 1997, then we had at least tripled such figure as one out of three persons in Hong Kong has become such worshipper now.

So is the rest of the population safe? Certainly not. But if they are outside the "casino culture", they may find the harsh economic conditions much more tolerable. It could be worse than the poor conditions in 2003 when SARS attacked Hong Kong, but so what? Those who are outside the casino culture have not in real terms enjoyed a good life after 2003 anyway! To be frank, if you stayed out of the "casino culture" of Hong Kong since 2003, life to you was probably poorer and more painful than ever in the last few years!

What worries me is that when the economic attacks become more and more severe, Hong Kong will have a complete social disintegration! Society in Hong Kong will be deeply and permanently divided and this will be reflected in local politics. We will need more and more help and control from our Central Government in Beijing in order to maintain stability. Well, I don't mean our prosperity does not rely on Beijing but I'm afraid that in face of a global recession, our Central Government must wish to look after the prosperity of our comrades in the Mainland first.

My mind is becoming quite blank when I think about how we are to steer our way through the next couple of years. Again, I believe only yourself alone can save you and don't expect another bailout from Beijing this time.

God, why have you forsaken us?