Thursday, October 23, 2008

HSBC falling below $100 to 5 yr record low?

Unbelievable but true now. What we are seeing is a process of normalization of the stock prices of many shares in Hong Kong; so don't worry.

It is just fair that HSBC's share price must continue to fall! Its US business has been hit very badly and its businesses in other parts of the world are facing recession and probably a lot of losses. In addition to the burst of the housing in US, the bank might face other problems like credit crunch, defaults in other debts such as credit card debts, corporate borrowings, etc., and most dangerous of all, losses resulting from its expansions inside Mainland China and in the emerging markets like Latin America and SE Asia.

I am a fan of HSBC but that doesn't mean that you have to defend its share price. Think about what can make HSBC an exception to the banking downturn and losses around the world? One suggests that HSBC is still attracting a lot of deposits from people in the street and that is very good to the bank. I agree that can do no harm to the bank but what good is it about? As usual, HSBC gets deposits from customers like you and me. What is so special about this point? The only edge is that the bank may rely on those deposits to do more businesses. But this sounds very funny. Why? Other banks that don't have enough deposits or have none are borrowing almost interest-free from their central banks and governments! You simply can't get any advantage by claiming you can stay healthier in these times of widespread credit diseases!

One has asked me what the bottom price of HSBC should be. My intuitive idea is that there is no bottom detectable until everyone has given up fishing for the bottom price! It's only when no one dares to try to buy at the bottom, then we can have the chance to touch the bottom. So as long as we have Mr. Market asking for the bottom price of HSBC stocks, we will not see the bottom.

Hong Kong has changed so much within the last few decades and it is now very clear the decadent culture of speculation, gambling, easy quick and ruthless money, and worship for asset inflation must come to an end. The fall of the stock price of HSBC is the best sign of the doom caused by such de-human culture!

But before we can end all these, someone must pay the price! The irony is that the devils are not paying for it! It's poor guys in the street paying the price and losing their hard-earned money and even lives! Cruel world but these poor guys may also be part of the de-human culture of Hong Kong. So when you know this, you may see why God can't help them!

God, why have you forsaken us?

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