Do I hear Wall Street saying that the Fed would pause in additional rate cuts? What a joke! I am no professional but I am not stupid. Where in the Fed's Statement does it say so? I guess this "pause" is another invention made by speculators who are shorting equities, commodities, etc.
Let's look at the Fed's Statement. Despite skyrocketing prices of fuel, food and many daily necessities, the Fed says: "The Committee expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters, reflecting a projected leveling-out of energy and other commodity prices and an easing of pressures on resource utilization." May be I am stupid but I am no fool. What is the ground for such "expectation"? What is the point of "expectation"? I expect inflation to moderate but will it follow my expectation? I expect to be a multi-billionaire tomorrow but will I? Can I? I am not naive and I am not childish enough to believe such expectation as reality.
So, why does the Fed emphasize such its expectation? Simple answer: they will continue to cut rates and devalue the US dollar and to enable them to do so, they must convince you and (at least) themselves that inflation will moderate. But here lies a great contradiction. On the one hand, the Fed says inflation will moderate due to "easing of pressure on resource utilization'. On the other hand, the Fed is saying in the next paragraph that there will be moderate growth. We are now in a recession or ugly slowdown (who cares how you label it) and yet inflation has been jumping up everyday. Think about the situation when we have "moderate growth": inflation will only jump higher when growth comes! I think this is just simple logic. You have high inflation when we are now recession and logically you will have uncontrollable inflation when we have moderate growth. Unless we will have deeper slowdown instead of moderate growth, we will see uncontrollable inflation. The two poles cannot go together; either moderate growth or inflation has to drop out. You can't moderate our present high inflation with moderate growth.
To me, the direction given by the Fed cannot be clearer. They want to continue to cut interest rates despite high inflation. There will be no pause in cuts until we see moderate growth and when we see moderate growth, inflation will become uncontrollable. For those speculators shorting equities, Euros, commodities, gold, oil, etc., I would sound like an eye-sore. But as the Fed is saying, I also "expect" inflation to moderate. It is my wish every day and night! Poor guys like me are suffering from high inflation every minute and we are becoming poorer everyday.
Thursday, May 1, 2008
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