We have a capital crisis in Hong Kong. I mean the unending outflow of Hong Kong dollars to Mainland China in the form of RMB deposits. The main reason and driving force behind this capital plight is the use of negative deposit interest rate in Hong Kong. The other main reason is of course the unending depreciation of the Hong Kong dollar versus the rapidly appreciating RMB.
As a poor guy in Hong Kong, I don't think there is any choice. If you hold HKD, you will not get any deposit interest in your saving rate (well, at most a pitiable rate of 0.0001% or $1 for every $100,000 a year??). If you switch HKD to RMB, banks in Hong Kong can only pay interest at another negative rate of 0.6+ p.a. This rate is insulting. Why? Our comrades across the border in Shenzhen can get deposit interest rate of 4-5.5% p.a. The difference between 5.5% and o.6+% is self-explanatory.
Please don't ask why depositors in Hong Kong are treated so unfairly! As a poor consumer, I can see no reason for such unequal treatment. The consequences of such discriminatory interest rate system are:
1. A clear signal that you must not keep HKD or RMB inside Hong Kong.
2. You are compelled to take money out of Hong Kong and deposit your RMB in Mainland China.
3. People in Hong Kong must sell Hong Kong dollars and hold RMB or other foreign currencies.
4. Your wealth (if any) will be reduced rapidly each day while you are holding HKD or RMB inside Hong Kong. If you don't take your money away from Hong Kong, you may lose another 10% or more of your wealth in the coming 6-9 months.
5. Hong Kong dollar must never be pegged to USD again.
6. If anyone wants to attack our Hong Kong dollar like what happened in the Asian financial crisis in 1997-98, maybe this is the time to start. Get ready for a tough ride, poor guys!
7. We must seek help from our Central Government in Beijing. Our local government is incapable of managing the present crisis without the guidance and direction of our Central Government.
8. Inflation in Hong Kong will become the highest in Asia within the next 6-9 months. The risk of stagflation in Hong Kong is higher than that in the US. Why? HKD is tumbling against USD, RMB, Yen and Euro.
Take care of your money and God bless us all.
Sunday, April 20, 2008
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