Sunday, May 4, 2008

What will happen to our world in the next 10 or 20 years?

This may sound like a big remote question. But I don't think so. We must try our best to find out the possible answers now. Reading Berkshire Hathaway's report 2007, I note again that they have issued put options with expiry dates 10 to 20 years later. The future is just too near us.

We seldom have sunny days in Hong Kong now. Air pollution, global warming and the wind/mist/dusts from Guangdong Province may explain why blue sky is leaving us. When I went to take photos of our sunset in Central this afternoon, I started to feel that we were facing many immediate problems:

Global Warming
The temperature is too high; it's at least 30 degree! There is very little moving air and the wind is HOT. Hong Kong is getting hotter every year. We seldom have winter in Hong Kong. The cold weather in Fed this year is really an exception. I wonder what will happen to us when the temperature continues to rise in the next 10 or 20 years. How can I manage to walk in Central any more? Can we all survive the hot hot weather? What will happen to those with heart, respiratory or other related illnesses? We will all get wet even with the slowest movements unless we can carry air-conditioners on our arms. We will have to spend more on laundry, use more water, washing powders, electricity, etc. What else? I just don't want to count anymore.

Air Pollution Global Dimming
When I reached Central Pier, I thought I could finally get some air near the harbour. Bad luck! The air was actually quite smelly. Smoke from the construction site nearby and the ferry boats might explain why. But why was the whole sky so dim? Yes, I could still see a little golden light by the far end of the sky in the West but no clear blue sky. Is this air pollution? Is this global dimming?

Hong Kong is surrounded by sea and if we can feel so bad here, think about what will happen if this is inland. Think about what will happen to our sky, our air, our harbour, our lungs, our hearts and health in the next 10 or 20 years? I might have died before the day comes!

Escape to Virtual Reality Cyber World of Fantasy
I began taking my photos of this "lovely sunset." I may not be able to get these photos in the next 10 years. If we want to see blue sky, golden sunset, glittering sea, the beauty of Nature, etc., we may probably find it only in the cyber world of fantasy, in images shown in the Internet. Nature will have to be digitalized; it cannot exist on earth anymore. I must save these lovely photos very carefully in my computer; they may bring me great fortunes when golden sunset disappears in Hong Kong.

Our World is Aging
When I looked around the people in Central and TsimShaTsui, I saw many of them were middle-aged or over. Many looked tired and were overweight. Obesity is their companion and they don't seem to worry about the risks involved. Suddenly, a little kid appeared behind me. He was enjoying his ice-cream and you know, he was also overweight. Obesity is the friend of young and old in Hong Kong.

But why didn't we see more kids running around on Sunday? Well, birth rate in Hong Kong has been falling every year and I am not surprised. Why? It takes 4 to 5 million hkd to raise a child in Hong Kong and this figure will only go up owing to unending inflation and depreciation of the pathetic Hong Kong dollar. If you are clever, just forget about having children and keep a pet instead. This is what a popular Chinese magazine has reported after doing a recent survey in Hong Kong. This explains why the business of selling pets, etc., is flourishing in Hong Kong.

Well, I am sure it will soon cost a lot to keep a pet in Hong Kong due to inflation, the food crisis in Asia. Think about why many pets are dumped into the street nowadays. If you are cleverer, you should just grow some plants as "companions"; this will at least keep our environment Green I hope.

Open Sexual Activities & Diseases
I was standing on the Mid-levels Escalator when my eyes were again assaulted by some very open sexual activities. The girl and the two boys in front of me were indulging in their intimate positions. I had no objection to Category III movies but such open intimacy did make you feel very uncomfortable when we were all using the pedestrian escalator under the hot and polluted sky of Hong Kong.

Well, Hong Kong is a place famous for obscene publications and I must train myself to enjoy our modern culture. But do you think these guys will practise safe sex when they are....? I recall we have a recent court case about underaged teenagers having 3P or 5P. I doubt whether our sex education has done enough to teach our younger generation. Think about what will happen 10 or 20 years later. Are we going to see widespread sexual diseases in Hong Kong? Would AIDS become a controllable problem in the future?

The Last Problem:What stocks or investments should we hold?
I am really very tired. I begin asking what should we hold in our portfolios when so many big problems are coming before us?

Should it be Nuclear stocks? Surely we can't live without using more energies in the future. We will only consume more not less energies. Oil can't be unlimited and we must use alternative energies like solar, wind, nuclear, etc. I don't think ethanol will help much.

Should we hold more healthcare? Yes, I think. Our world will only generate more and more diseases or new diseases in view of the terrible climate and environmental changes.

Should we hold more food, basic materials and real estate? Yes, I think. When inflation is everywhere and no one can stop it, anything in our world that is physical will become expensive (except our own bodies I suppose). I guess this is the reason why Berkshire Hathaway is willing to issue put options covering a period of 10 to 20 years.

God bless us.

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