Friday, June 13, 2008

Would raising interest prevent commodity prices rising?

My simple-minded answer is 'NO.' Before Alan Greenspan retired, he raised interest rate several times but prices of oil, other energies and basic materials still rose rapidly in those days.

If speculation is the driving force behind commodity prices, you should attack the speculators. Raising interest rate in the near future would definitely have some clear negative impacts on equities, consumer spending, bonds and corporate earnings. But how would that deter speculations on commodities? As long as the speculators have money or enough money and/or leverages to inject capital into the commodities markets, they can keep the prices going up and up. I guess these speculators have already multiplied their capitals by 10 folds or more by now. Think about the gains they have made since the rise of commodities prices. Oil began to hit $60 a barrel back in 2004 or earlier? Well, you can make a new world in a year and in 4 years or more, you could have sent a rocket to the Sun.

The fact is oil money is fuelling our asset bubbles in the stock market, the real estate market, the commodities market, the capital market, etc. Oil money lies in the hands of the ruling elites of our planet earth. Many governments and administrations are collaborating with oil and other commodities speculators. In Asia, governments are injecting endless subsidies to fund the consumption of oil and other commodities. In Europe, the ECB is keeping up a strong Euro to fund energy consumption. In America, you should ask Obama or Clinton what the US government has done to keep oil prices rising.

Yes, there are a number of beneficiaries from the rising commodity prices. Canada, Australia, Brazil, Russia and of course the Middle-East and Africa are all benefiting from this trend. But remember their own citizens are actually paying a high price for commodities too. May be only a small sector in their economies can take real benefits.

I think we must organize a global protest against the speculators and to do that, the administrations must identify those speculators and enact legislation to deter their speculations. Shall we have a worldwide "anti-inflation" day or "anti-speculation" day? Yes, I hope and let's take July 1st as a tentative date for our global protest against inflation and speculation!

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