Implications of Fortune-Telling Stick No.60 for Hong Kong

I am sure you have read the news about the Fortune-Telling Stick No.60 that our Hong Kong representative, Mr. Lau, prayed and obtained in Shatin's Che Kung Temple. According to sources, the stick reveals good fortune for Hong Kong in the Year of the Rat. As investors, we are concerned about the implications for stocks and other investments and here are some of my personal understandings:

You must take the route to China's capital, Beijing

The fortune-telling stick says that 3,000 talents shall travel to China's capital to sit for the Civil Service National Examinations. This was the way that Chinese Governments recruited talents coming from all corners of China to serve the nation throughout Chinese history. The message is very clear: you must go outside Hong Kong and travel to Mainland China Beijing to make your fortune. While such trend was already prevalent before our reunification in 1997, the stick is now telling you that you must choose such route in order to build your future. You don't have a choice.

You must invest in businesses selected by our Central Government

I think the messsage is simple and clear: you should invest in stocks of businesses in Mainland China, namely, H shares and red-chips. Our HK Stock Casino has relied on the listing and performance of H shares for a long time. Many local stocks including blue-chips have tarnished and their share price declined to extremely low level. The important note in the stick is that you should invest in those businesses that are selected, favored or supported by our Central Government. So be smart and don't pick those that our Central Government does not like!

Watch out for the Golden List of Winners to be issued by our Central Government

The fortune-telling stick says that there will be a Golden List issued by our Central Government. I imagine the List will name those businesses, industries, stocks or investments that our Central Government would like to select as part of their financial and investment strategies for 2008-09. If you want to make a fortune, you must watch out for the Golden List. The Golden List should only be released after the examinations and historically, the time should be Autumn or Winter. But I don't think the List would be the "direct-through train" scheme that has so far been abortive. Why? Simple: the Golden List is to name those that can make their fortunes in Mainland China, Beijing and not in Hong Kong. I imagine the Golden List may select certain local businesses for listing in Mainland China such as local property and banking businesses. This year 2008 you will see a reversal: the listing of Hong Kong companies on the stock exchanges of Mainland China. To play safe, I won't touch the shares of HKEX (388) (our HK Stock Casino) until the release of the Golden List.

No more BIG Hong Kong

The fortune-telling stick says that the Golden List from our Central Government will last for ten thousand years. Our talents and businesses must go to Beijing and not Hong Kong.

Caveat: The above is intended purely for funs and chats after tea. You must not take it seriously or rely on it but if anything turns out to be true, please remember to inform us.