Bloody Jan, what would Feb be like?

What a bloody January! The sky is falling and honestly, I have no idea yet about what Feb would be like. I don't want to be wise after the event but if you have reduced your equities as I had suggested in my blog, you should have avoided or mitigated your losses. Here are some fragmented thoughts:

1. Clearly the Bull is unsustainable

The HS Index of our HK Stock Casino has tumbled by more than 30% since its record high at 31,638 pts a couple of months ago. There is simply no "direct through train" coming from Mainland China to rescue Hong Kong. It makes no sense for our Central Government to sacrifice Mainland capital to rescue unscrupulous speculators in the HK Stock Casino. Surely if the bubbles of the "A share" markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen explode, the local government in HK would not sacrifice HK capital to rescue speculators in the Mainland. We must cry for help from local HK Tycoons like Mr. Li Ka Shing. He is the richest man in Asia and with a heart of gold. Why? He is the first tycoon in HK warning you guys about the risks and losses that you will suffer once the bubble explodes! You guys refuse to listen to him and you know how difficult it is to get his help now.

2. Liars please keep your mouths shut!

I don't want to repeat the stupid lies (whether innocent or not) that Mr. Market, Mr. Speculation, your brokers and analysts have been telling us. There is no bubble, the market will go up and up, don't worry, it will rebound, the stock market won't fall until after China's Olympics, money from Mainland China will flood the HK Stock Casino, China stocks are not overvalued, ... Now look, you win in the bubble and you lose with the bubble! You deserve it! But I want all liars in town to shut up now at least for a while until we have buried the dead bodies in our Stock Casino. You guys must learn this lesson: NEVER NEVER NEVER listen to them again! It may do you more good or less harm if you have had listened to me, ha, ha,....

3. Don't think about Feb or anything else: just sell on rebound

There is no point to predict what Feb would look like. I would just DROP DEAD and sell what is left (if any) on rebound. Yes, take back your cash and keep them for your hibernation. When Spring comes or draws near, you can still go out to hunt again. You may ask how about the strategy of hold long especially for value stocks? I like this strategy but unfortunately, it won't work in a stock market filled with mania, crazy frenzies, panic, euphoria and irrationality. It might take a considerable time before the players come back to their senses and you can always return to the party provided you have cash in your pocket.

4. The HK Stock Casino will fall by at least 10% more

I may be wrong (I hope too) but I have no doubt that this will happen soon. Remember what happened in last Aug; we almost ended the party at that time and I can't see why the party today will have a better ending than that in last Aug.